The Trump-Putin meeting in Japan is crucial for both leaders—and for the world.
Despite determined attempts in Washington to sabotage such a “summit,” as
I reported previously,
President Trump and Russian President Putin are still scheduled to meet
at the G-20 gathering in Japan this week. Iran will be at the top of
their agenda. The Trump administration seems determined to wage cold,
possibly even hot, war against the Islamic Republic, while for Moscow,
as
emphasized by the Kremlin’s national security adviser, Nikolai Patrushev, on June 25, “Iran has been and will be an ally and partner of ours.”
Indeed, the importance of Iran (along with China) to Russia can
hardly be overstated. Among other reasons, as the West’s military
alliance encroaches ever more along Russia’s western borders, Iran is a
large, vital non-NATO neighbor. Still more, Teheran has done nothing to
incite Russia’s own millions of Muslim citizens against Moscow. Well
before Trump, powerful forces in Washington have long sought to project
Iran as America’s primary enemy in the Middle East, but for Moscow it is
a necessary “ally and partner.”
In normal political circumstances, Trump and Putin could
probably diminish any potential US-Russian conflict over Iran—and the
one still brewing in Syria as well. But both leaders come to the summit
with related political problems at home. For Trump, they are the
unproven but persistent allegations of “Russiagate.” For Putin, they are
economic.
As I have also
previously explained,
while there was fairly traditional “meddling,” there was no “Russian
attack” on the 2016 American presidential election. But for many
mainstream American commentators, including
the editorial page editor of The Washington Post,
it is an “obvious truth” and likely to happen again in 2020, adding
ominously that Trump is still “cozying up to the chief perpetrator,
Russian President Vladimir Putin.” A
New York Times columnist goes further,
insisting that Russia “helped to throw the election” to Trump. Again,
there is no evidence whatsoever for these allegations. Also consider the
ongoing assault on Attorney General William Barr,
whose current investigation into the origins of “Russiagate” threatens
to conclude that the scandal originated not with Russia but with US
intelligence agencies under President Obama, in particular with the CIA
under John Brennan.
We should therefore not be surprised, despite possible
positive national security results of the Trump-Putin summit in Japan,
if the US president is again widely accused of “treason,” as he so
shamefully was following his meeting with Putin in Helsinki in July
2018, and as
I protested at that time. Even the
Times’
once-dignified columnist pages thundered, “Trump, Treasonous Traitor”
and “Putin’s Lackey,” while senior US senators, Democrat and Republican
alike, did much the same.
Putin’s domestic problem, on the other hand, is economic and
social. Russia’s annual growth rate is barely 2 percent, real wages are
declining, popular protests against officialdom’s historically endemic
corruption are on the rise, and Putin’s approval rating, while still
high, is declining. A public dispute between two of Putin’s advisers has
broken out over what to do. On the one side is Alexei Kudrin, the
leading monetarist who has long warned against using billions of dollars
in Russia’s “rainy day” funds to spur investment and economic growth.
On the other is Sergei Glaziev, a kind of Keynesian, FDR New Dealer who
has no less persistently urged investing these funds in new domestic
infrastructure that would, he argues, result in rapid economic growth.
During his nearly 20 years as Kremlin leader, Putin has generally sided with the “rainy day” monetarists. But on June 20,
during his annual television call-in event,
he suddenly, and elliptically, remarked that even Kudrin “has been
drifting towards” Glaziev. Not surprisingly, many Russian commentators
think this means that Putin himself is now “leaning toward Glaziev.” If
so, it is another reason why Putin has no interest in waging cold war
with the United States—why he wants instead, indeed even needs, a
historic, long-term détente.
It seems unlikely that President Trump or any of the
advisers currently around him understand this important struggle—and it
is a struggle—unfolding in the Russian policy elite. But if Trump wants a
major détente (or “cooperation,” as he has termed it) with Russia,
anyone who cares about international security and about the well-being
of the Russian people should support him in this pursuit. Especially at
this moment, when we are
told by the director of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research that “the risks of the use of nuclear weapons…are higher now than at any time since World War Two.”
This commentary is based on Stephen F. Cohen’s most recent weekly discussion with the host of The John Batchelor Show.
Now in their sixth year, previous installments are at TheNation.com.
Stephen F. Cohen is a professor emeritus of Russian studies and politics at New York University and Princeton University. A
Nation contributing editor, his new book
War With Russia? From Putin & Ukraine to Trump & Russiagate is available in paperback and in an ebook edition.