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ST.PETERSBURG
(Sputnik) - Israel is unlikely to freely use Syrian airspace in the wake
of the crash of a Russian Il-20 military aircraft over the
Mediterranean Sea, Yakov Kedmi, a former high-ranking Israeli
intelligence official, told Sputnik.
"There
was an agreement between Israel and Russia that the actions of Israel
in Syria's airspace would not endanger lives of Russian troops. Israel
breached this commitment… What happens next will depend on the position
of Israel. Most likely, Israel will no longer be able to enjoy the same
freedom in the sky of Syria as it did before the incident," Kedmi said.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) earlier in the day that Israel would
share all information on the incident with Moscow. The IDF expressed
regret over the deaths of the Russian troops and put the blame
on Damascus and Tehran.
"Israel's attack in itself, regardless of the
consequences, was an irresponsible step, because there is not a single
facility on the territory of Syria that might have been used by Iran and
whose destruction would have justified an attack on it, which could
endanger the Russian troops," Kedmi said.
According
to the IDF, the Israeli jets were targeting a facility in Syria which
contained "systems to manufacture accurate and lethal weapons" that
could be sent "on behalf of Iran" to Hezbollah movement in Lebanon.
Israel, as well as many other states, considers the movement a terrorist
organization.
The Russian Hmeimim airbase had lost contact with the crew of the Russian Il-20 military aircraft
late on Monday during the attack of four Israeli F-16 aircraft
on Syrian targets in the province of Latakia. The Russian Defense
Ministry said earlier on Tuesday that the Israeli military deliberately
created a dangerous situation by using the Russian aircraft as a shield
against Syrian air defense systems. As a result, the Il-20 jet was
downed by a missile launched by Syria's S-200 air defense system.
The law of unintended consequences has forced China’s hand in Syria.
As the battle for Idlib draws near, China is set to fight Al Qaeda
trained Uyghur jihadists in Syria in order to help the Syrian government
retake their territory, preventing those very jihadist terrorists from
returning to Xinjiang province and sewing the seeds of partition in
China.
The Duran’s Alex Christoforou and International Affairs and Security
Analyst, from Moscow, Mark Sleboda discuss how the American plan to
partition Syria has pressured China to take part in an already crowded
and complicated conflict.
The US policy of permanently balkanizing Syria appears to be a foregone conclusion, even as the Syrian Arab Army and Russian forces proceed with their last major counter-terrorism operation in Idlib.
According to Wolfgang Mühlberger, senior fellow for EU-Mideast
relations at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, “Idlib is
the very Arab Kandahar with potentially more than 100,000 experienced, battle-hardened Sunni jihadi fighters hiding between the civilians.”
This high number is due to the amalgamation of
all the militants from de-confliction zones or reconquered battle zones
(e.g., Aleppo, Ghouta, Deraa, etc.) throughout Syria that have been
shipped to Idlib over the past couple of years, as well as remnants of
the Free Syrian Army.
However, despite Washington acknowledging that the governorate is an Al Qaeda safe haven for militants from over 100 countries, the tripartite powers of the UK, US and France are now asking Germany to
join planned airstrikes against Syria – as soon as President Bashar
al-Assad gives them the green light by using chemical weapons.
It is not entirely clear why the US believes the
Syrian president would deliberately provoke western airstrikes on
Syrian forces when they are on a winning streak in their war with the
terrorists, but it does seem apparent that Washington intends to prevent
Syria from regaining sovereignty over Idlib.
As discussed in a previous Asia Times article,
RAND Corporation drew up a Syria partition plan wherein the US would
occupy the northeast, Turkey the northwest, Russia and Iran the coastal
area and large parts of the Syrian desert, and Israel and Jordan the
southwest.
The US zone would contain oil fields where 90% of Syria’s pre-war oil production took place, while Israel would control the newly discovered oil reserves in
the Golan Heights. Turkey’s control of Idlib as a safe haven for
militants would put continued pressure on the Syrian government, and a
balkanized Syria would be weak and less likely to provide a viable base
for Iran and Hezbollah to attack Israel.
However, the partition of Idlib as a jihadi sanctuary has important
implications for another actor – China. Back in August, there were reports that Beijing would participate in the Battle for Idlib due to the presence of Chinese Uyghur jihadi colonies. If Turkey controls Idlib, China fears Ankara and the West would exploit Uyghur militants as proxies to destabilize Xinjiang.
Idlib proxies to destabilize Xinjiang?
There are historical reasons for this concern, given that the CIA tried to destabilize Xinjiang and supported separatists in Tibet during the Cold War. As Israeli sinologist Yizhak Shichor pointed
out, in the 1950s Washington tried to exploit Muslim grievances against
China and the Soviet Union, by attempting to form a Middle Eastern
Islamic pact to organize fifth columns in these countries.
Brian Fishman, a counter-terrorism expert at the New America Foundation, also noted that in the 1990s Osama Bin Laden accused
the US and CIA of inciting conflict between Chinese and Muslims. After a
series of 1997 bombings in Xinjiang that Beijing ascribes to Uyghur
separatists, bin Laden blamed the CIA in an interview, saying,
“The United States wants to incite conflict between China and the
Muslims. The Muslims of Xinjiang are blamed for the bomb blasts in
Beijing. But I think these explosions were sponsored by the American
CIA.”
Interestingly at the time, Al Qaeda had its eyes on the West and
largely ignored Uyghur separatism as a Chinese domestic issue. But as
Fishman assessed, over time the transnational problem of al Qaeda and
its allies, and the increasing prominence of Uyghurs in jihadi
propaganda, meant that China could no longer avoid them.
Indeed, given that the 2016 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan was a joint operation between Al Nusra and its Uyghur affiliate Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP);
the continual supply of advanced weaponry and tacit Western support for
TIP due to its intermingling with the “rebel” opposition; professional
military training by the private security company Malhama Tactical to improve TIP’s warfighting capabilities; and TIPs ultimate goal to attack China, James Dorsey at
the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore argued
that Beijing mulling military intervention in Idlib underscores the
gravity of this threat to China’s core interests.
Currently, China seems to be steering clear of direct military
involvement and instead relies on Syria and Russia, but it would be
concerned should Western powers block Damascus and Moscow’s campaign to
reclaim Idlib and continue to partition a safe zone for Uyghur militants.
Moreover, as Jacob Zenn from
the Jamestown Foundation pointed out, China is also concerned by “the
prospect of re-shaping the borders in the Middle East that could lead to
new conceptions of sovereignty and statehood – not only in the region but elsewhere throughout the Islamic world, including Central Asia and Xinjiang.’
Xinjiang at heart of Belt and Road Initiative
Now it appears that a Western united front is emerging to confront China on human rights issues, using various tools of media coverage, economic sanctions, political activism by NGOs and think tanks to internationalize the Uyghur issue in Xinjiang.
Similar to Israel’s dilemma over the internationalization of
the Palestinian issue, China is bracing itself for a destabilization
campaign and possible call for secession and partition of the province
from Chinese sovereignty.
This perception is due to US backing of the Munich-based World Uyghur
Congress, which aspires to revert Xinjiang to an independent East
Turkistan. The first president of the Congress was Erkin Alptekin, son
of Isa Alptekin, who headed the short-lived First East Turkestan
Republic in Kashgar (November 12, 1933 to February 6, 1934), and also
served as an advisor to the CIA while working at Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty in Munich.
The Alptekin family and Xinjiang secession enjoy strong support from
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who while being mayor of
Istanbul in 1995, named a section of the Blue Mosque park after Isa
Alptekin and built a memorial to commemorate Eastern Turkistani martyrs
who lost their lives in the “struggle for independence.”
Given resource-rich Xinjiang is at the heart of
the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), destabilizing the province would
not only spoil the plan for Eurasian integration and development, but
also weaken China’s economy by cutting off its overland energy supply
from Central Asia and the Middle East, hamper its market access, and
keep Beijing bogged down in an ethnoreligious conflict.
While this may augment current Washington’s trade war against the
Middle Kingdom and weaken the Pentagon’s “peer competitor,” by
deliberately stoking Chinese fears about Xinjiang destabilization and
increasing radicalization, thereby egging Beijing to clamp down on
Uyghurs, is in effect exploiting the ethnic Uyghur’s plight for narrow
geopolitical agenda.
And as Yizhack Shichor perceived,
“Vocal criticism of China related to its Uyghur persecution comes
primarily, in fact almost entirely from outside the Middle East, from
Western non-Muslim countries…[which] may have little do to with loving
the Uyghurs, and much more to do with opposing China.”